Prophetic (well, not quite...)

A few weeks ago, I wrote a letter* to the Jewish Telegraph (Liverpool) in which I said, among other things, that Palestinians are more concerned with having a non-corrupt government than they are about which party is in power. Therefore, my argument went, the demise of Fatah in last year's elections was mostly due to perceived (and often actual) corruption in their ranks. I argued further that most Palestinians do not support Hamas' fundamental principles (as set out in their charter: "There is no solution for the Palestinian question except through Jihad") in the sense that they are prepared to settle for a compromise in the form of a two-state solution.

The following week, a reply appeared. It was written by someone from a Leeds-based Zionist group and was highly critical of my letter. One point in particular seemed to rankle the author: my characterisation of Palestinian opinions. He referred to another opinion poll showing that many Palestinians support suicide bombings against civilians, among other things. While I respect his opinion and accept that the poll to which he referred is valid, a poll reported today in Ha'aretz shows Palestinians becoming disillusioned with Hamas, something I have thought might happen for a while now.

The title of this article sums up how I feel about this: on the one hand, I just want to say, "I told you so!"; on the other hand, my prediction is hardly unique. I have seen numerous pieces on analysis, both in the Israeli and British press, predicting the collapse of the Hamas government when they are shown to be spending government resources on rockets to fire at S'derot rather than on schools and hospitals. The poll reported today shows:

"...47 percent said the Fayyad government is performing better than the previous Hamas-led Cabinet led by Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh. In comparison, 24 percent favored Haniyeh's government, while 23 percent said there was no difference between the two governments. Six percent did not answer." (courtesy Ha'aretz)

(These results are from a sample of 1,200 people in the Gaza Strip and West Bank and have a margin of error of 3%.)

While Hamas are by no means a marginal force among Palestinians (especially in Gaza), their support has certainly diminished substantially - something that can only be good for the peace process.

*If anyone would like to see a copy of my letter, leave a comment below and I'll email it to you.

Immature Democracies

"Abbas Says He May Dismiss Hamas Government", declared the New York Times today. Yet another example of a recently democratised country (or autonomous region, in this case) threatening to fall into chaos.

The Neo-Conservative aim of spreading democracy throughout the world, especially in "rogue states", seems all well and good, but it has several failings. One of these, I believe, causes the type of situation described by the NY Times, above. The Neo-Con attitude seems to be that democracy comes first, and then Western civilisation and associated norms follow. For me, this process is the wrong way round, and the latter aim is both ridiculous and arrogant. Firstly, the ground must be prepared for democracy, rather than the world's preferred method of government being foisted upon an unconvinced population. By "preparing the ground" I mean:

• explaining the electoral process
• establishing rules by which elections will be run, including:
• what is and is not acceptable during campaigns
• acceptable methods of funding for political parties and candidates
• establishing rules for political parties in general, for example:
• no party can be allowed to associate itself with any sort of militia or other armed group

My other major problem with the Neo-Con approach is the assumption that countries such as Iraq will want to adopt the Western way of life and that their population approves of Western culture. I do not accept the argument that some countries simply "don't want" democracy, or that it is an unsuitable form of government for them. However, I do believe that not all countries are ready for democracy at the present time; any country that has been ruled undemocratically for decades will need to adjust to any new freedoms.

To return to the NY Times article, I think that Mr. Abbas's suggestion to replace the current government with one comprised of technocrats is a good one, and could greatly improve the lives of the Palestinian people. I do not think that new elections would be sensible (although many people may now move their allegiance away from Hamas, given their poor record in government) as this would simply be propogating the problem of the Palestinian Territories' immature democracy. Until policy related to Israel ceases to overwhelm all domestic policy in the Palestinian legislature, elections will continue be counterproductive as the results will mostly reflect Palestinians' attitude towards Israel, rather than any concern for good governance.

And as for Iraq, what's Blogger's word limit?!